Busting the herd immunity myth - There’s “no chance” it’ll happen

Throughout the pandemic, we’ve heard constant mutterings about herd immunity. Scientists have called it a ‘scientific illiterate’ idea but some say the government has been very keen on it from the start.


Herd immunity only happens once enough people are immune to make it impossible for a virus to spread. It’s a nice thought. But does it make any scientific sense? Is the UK anywhere near that magical herd immunity threshold? And will we ever get there?

 
The bad news – herd immunity is probably impossible
Scientists say herd immunity is unlikely to happen any time soon, and might be impossible to achieve anyway. Herd immunity happens when everyone with covid infects less than one person, the R number we’re so familiar with these days. In theory this can happen via vaccination or infection itself, both of which deliver some future immunity. But in real life, in the real world, humanity has only ever reached herd immunity via inoculation, for example smallpox, which was finally eradicated in 1980 after a massive worldwide vaccination drive.


When covid kicked off the R number was roughly 2.5. The latest estimates say the Delta variant comes with an R number of 5 - 9.5, according to scientists. This means the current herd immunity threshold falls somewhere between 80-90% of Brits being fully vaccinated.


At the same time there’s no such thing as a 100% effective vaccine. While our covid vaccines are extremely effective at preventing severe disease, they don’t always stop infections. Some of us pass it on even though we’ve been vaccinated. At the same time it looks like vaccines are only up to 79% effective against delta.

 
There’s more to consider: how much social contact people have, the age they get infected, their particular immune system and genetic make-up, and any pre-existing immunity. All this means there really is only one way to reach herd immunity – we need vaccines that deliver ‘near-sterilising immunity’, where covid is totally stopped from replicating, and we must achieve a very high uptake of these vaccines.


Taking all this into account, herd immunity is just not going to be possible. It will only work if every single person in the UK has both jabs, plus any boosters that become available. Sadly, immunity to covid is only short-lived, re-infection is entirely possible, and variants that evade immunity are more likely than ever before thanks to the UK covid restrictions being lifted.


It’s also worrying that the speed of vaccine roll-out worldwide isn’t smooth. If a country with high vaccination rates does manage to achieve herd immunity, contact with people from other countries will spark outbreaks. This already happens in the UK with measles.


The message is clear – there’s “no chance of ever reaching herd immunity”
On 10th August scientists at an all-party UK parliamentary committee ‘were unanimous in their opinion that the UK wasn’t going to reach herd immunity.’ They say the UK will reach an ‘endemic equilibrium’ instead, where covid becomes seasonal, emerging every year.


The message from the people who understand the science is clear. Nobody should be banking on herd immunity. Everybody should get vaccinated. The illness remains ‘potentially deadly and can have long-term health consequences’.


Endemic covid means you need our UVC covid disinfection tech more than ever
This might be one of the best business decisions you ever made. Invest in a UVC covid disinfection machine and you’ll be able to wheel it out for years to come, whenever a covid surge turns up to disrupt things, and threaten your customers and staff.

a group of horses standing behind a wooden fence
By Collen Baker March 13, 2024
Here in the UK we stand at the forefront of international equine breeding, and the sector provides almost 20,000 jobs to the economy. When a disease raises its ugly head horses have to be isolated and can’t compete. The last thing you need is a disease on the premises. A major outbreak of equine flu had serious implications for horses and their owners, followed by an equally serious outbreak of equine herpes virus that prevented almost 4000 horses from competing, blocked on the Federation Equine International list. It also led to international competitions being shut down in twelve EU nations. So it’s great to know UVC technology comes with all sort of benefits for the equine industry, keeping facilities safer for the horses themselves as well as for the people who care for and work with them. Here’s how our brilliant UVC tech will help future-proof your equine business while your competitors struggle. UV Sanitization for equine businesses Our simple, low cost, highly effective UVC tech can be used to sanitize high traffic areas and high touch areas, places like offices and show facilities. A mobile room UV sterilizer might be your best choice to kill bacteria, moulds and viruses across the premises, or one or more fixed units of different types. You might find a unit fixed inside the ventilation and air conditioning ducts will make a big difference, or you might go for a combination. You can fit our UVC sanitization units in any room where you want to disinfect the air and surfaces. UVC lamps at the right wavelength will disinfect a room in just a few minutes to give you a safer premises, a place with reliably pathogen-free air. The rays eliminate 99.9% of bacteria, viruses, moulds and other threats to human and horse health. Turn the units on and they start killing pathogens instantly. Equine biosecurity for stables Horse-led businesses face a constant risk of infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted via aerosol pathogens like Equine Influenza, Equine Herpes virus and Streptococcus Equi, also called Strangles. The tech also benefits horse quarantine facilities. While there isn’t a lot of research about UVC light’s ability to kill off equine-specific strains of herpes and flu, there’s a wealth of studies, evidence and research revealing how well UVC light inactivates viruses, bacteria and fungi in general, and human forms of flu and streptococcus. There’s absolutely no scientific reason to think it doesn’t have the same impact on horse diseases. Your equine business is unique – and so is our solution Our units give you a convenient way to expose enclosed areas where horses gather and live to the UVC light that kills equine diseases. Every project is unique so the first step is to establish exactly what you need at your place, something we do as a matter of course. Once you’ve eliminated aerosol and surface pathogens, the risk of them spreading from human to horse and horse-to-horse plummets. UV light complements your physical cleaning perfectly, too. You can shine it on grooming tools, tack and feed buckets as well as surfaces and the air, so they don’t end up becoming disease carriers. All of our devices create a controlled UVC zone where the air is continuously disinfected, and because they’re designed with safety in mind neither horses nor humans can be over exposed to the light. Equine business? Make the premises even safer for horses and people Give us a call if you’d like to know more about how UVC will keep your business going when others are forced to stop until an equine disease runs its course. We think you’ll find it an inspiring conversation.
By Chris Witham November 23, 2023
Advice on UV for private water supplies
By Chris Witham January 10, 2023
Every new covid infection gives the virus the chance to mutate. Every single person who catches it risks being the one in whom a new strain or variant is born. So what are the latest covid subvariants on the block? About the BF.7 omicron subvariant One subvariant, BF.7, is currently the main variant in Beijing and is apparently responsible for a surge across China. BF.7, which is short for BA.5.2.1.7, is actually a sub-lineage of the omicron variant BA.5 and it has the strongest ability to infect out of all of China’s omicron subvariants. It has a shorter incubation period than any other and comes with a greater capacity to infect people who have already had covid, been jabbed, or both. About the XBB.1.5 omicron variant A highly transmissible covid-19 subvariant called XBB.1.5 has fast become the dominant cause of infection in the USA. Some are calling it ‘The Kraken’. Thankfully while it’s a whole lot more infectious than previous subvariants, it looks like the symptoms it causes aren’t any more serious. than usual. It’s highly likely this will become the dominant worldwide variant, and it’ll probably happen very quickly. So far The Kraken has been doubling almost weekly in the USA, making it the country’s fastest-spreading variant, responsible for at least 40% of new cases. That’s a dramatic change from early December 2022 when it accounted for just 1%. In north east USA it could be responsible for as many as three quarters of all covid infections. XBB.1.5 has made its way to at least 28 other countries so far, including the UK and Australia. By mid-December 2022, according to the Wellcome Sanger Institute, it was already responsible for around 4% of UK cases. What’s the genetic story behind XBB.1.5? The Kraken was created when two covid variants swapped genetic material inside the same person. It’s genetically similar to other omicron subvariants, but comes with a better ability to stick to and infect human cells. It’s better at avoiding immunity than previous variants too, thanks to changes in the spike protein targeted by jabs. And it better escapes antibodies in blood samples from people who had three jabs of the CoronoVac vaccine, in those who’ve had two doses of an mRNA vaccine, and in people who have recovered from covid recently. Luckily vaccines still give us some protection. As long as you’ve had at least two jabs you’ll be less likely to become seriously ill or die. Protection is even better with UK and USA bivalent boosters because they target subvariants a lot like XBB.1.5. This doesn’t bode well for the USA where only around 15% over aged 5 have had the latest booster jab. Covid treatments and ways to stop the spread When the pandemic began we didn’t have any treatments for covid. Many of the new treatments available, including antiviral medicines, will still be effective against XBB.1.5 but experts are still recommending masking and improving indoor ventilation to slow the subvariant’s spread. Three years down the line, humanity has been incredibly fortunate. So far there hasn’t been a new variant that causes more severe symptoms, and so far we haven’t seen a brand new virus. These latest variants, while more efficient and more infectious, remain controllable. But there’s no reason, with China neck deep in covid and cases surging elsewhere, why something extra-nasty won’t emerge.  Take steps, prepare, be ready. Let’s talk about how our tech prevents covid spreading in workplaces, entertainment spaces, public places, and everywhere people gather indoors.
By Chris Witham July 23, 2021
“The more the virus replicates, the more chances there are for it to change. In countries where many people have been vaccinated there will be a strong selection for any variants that can evade vaccine immunity” Depending on your world view and attitude to risk, you'll see the reduced covid restrictions as a calculated risk or a reckless gamble. While the move might be good politics, plenty of experts say it isn't good public health policy. So what are the scientists saying?  'Freedom Day' opinions are divided It's good news that the UK's vaccination efforts are hitting one vital goal, finally separating infection from severe disease. It's clear vaccinated people are less likely to become very ill and need hospital treatment, but it isn't guaranteed. You can't know whether or not you'll avoid catching the virus – or being very ill – until you actually catch it. While Delta is still spreading worryingly fast, hospitalisations aren’t rising at the same rate. But health secretary Sajid Javid says that, thanks to the easing, new cases could hit 100,000 a day. And that's very worrying because the more cases there are, the more risk there is of new, more dangerous variants arising. Delta on the rampage Delta is spreading fast. One Australian caught it simply by walking past an infected person on the street. In the Netherlands 600 people attended a night club, all of whom either tested negative or were fully vaccinated. At least 165 of them caught the Delta variant anyway. As we write many countries are struggling to control the variant. No wonder a YouGov poll reveals 71% of people think masks should still be mandatory on public transport. We should prepare for an 'exit wave' Experts say we will probably have to endure an 'exit wave' before long. The Delta variant means herd immunity is already way out of reach. And no nation on earth is likely to achieve 100% vaccination. To get where we need to be, as a partly-vaccinated nation, our politicians are letting covid run wild through the population despite the inevitable deaths. They hope the survivors will be 'largely immune', but plenty of us will inevitably be left suffering from Long Covid. How many covid deaths are acceptable? The conversation around how many deaths and severe cases are acceptable is a difficult one. If you, personally, lose a family member or friend or end up battling Long Covid for months, how will you feel? How many deaths should we simply accept as collateral damage? None? One? A thousand? And what about the potential for legal action? If you run a business, relax the restrictions for your employees, someone dies from covid and you're taken to court, how will you fare? It's got to be worth considering. As an employer, you're now responsible for public health. It's a serious responsibility. The people who have worked safely from home are inevitably going to be put at risk, as are those who have, so far, been protected at work thank to masks, distancing and physical barriers. And what happens to people who remain just as vulnerable to covid as they were before 'Freedom Day'? For them the world has suddenly become a lot more dangerous. Scientists recommend a more careful, staggered approach to 'freedom' People in the know are saying removing restrictions one at a time is 'indisputably a more responsible approach'. It would also help people and businesses navigate this new landscape, where the government has effectively handed over responsibility for people's safety to individuals and employers. At the end of the day, as the scientists say, there's only one certainty. England is taking a 'big gamble', and the world will be watching to see what happens. UVC covid disinfection technology could save your business As an employer, the only real way to keep your people safe is to keep on keeping them safe! Our UVC covid disinfection technology will help you do exactly that. It's invaluable in an already uncertain world that has just become a whole lot less certain. Source of all information and quotes: New Scientist magazine.
By Collen Baker March 31, 2021
What is a ‘recombinant virus’? It’s bad news. Recombinants are made up of a blend of two variants of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, and scientists have found them spreading between people. This is increasing the risk of highly dangerous new variants, and it’s very worrying. Recombinants enter the scene The first recombination was noticed in February 2021, but at the time nobody knew whether it was out there in the wild. Two new analyses prove we have a worst-case scenario, with recombinants freely circulating. This is a powerful source of evolutionary change in the coronavirus, and it could easily see recent mutations combining to create something ‘more dangerous’. One analysis saw experts estimating as many as 1 in 20 of all the SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating in the UK and US are actually recombinants. They analysed more than 500,000 covid genomes from around the globe to find over a thousand potential recombinants, most very rare. But two are already circulating fast, one hitting the USA, UK, Singapore, Japan and Canada, and the other affecting the USA, UK, Canada and Denmark. Thankfully neither of them are ‘of concern’, and there’s no reason to believe these recombinants have changed the virus’ ease of transmission or its virulence. When the recombinants combine Other less common recombinants do feature scary mutations, and scientists are worried that recombining two lineages with higher transmissibility or virulence could prove lethally dangerous. Since the analysis took place we’ve already seen the commonest recombinant spreading horribly fast, becoming even more prevalent and widespread in the USA. This could be a sign of worse levels of transmissibility, but the numbers still need to be checked and peer-reviewed before any conclusions can be drawn. The Walter Reed Army Institute of Research in Maryland has also done some research into recombination, examining 100,000 genomes from around the world at the end of October 2020, when fewer variants were circulating. They’ve pinned down a total of 8 potential recombinants. The research also hasn’t been peer reviewed yet but it hints that the circulation of SARS-CoV-2 recombinants could have ‘major implications’, especially if one of them escapes natural immunity and vaccine immunity so can’t be stopped in its tracks. We’ve seen it happen with recombinant norovirus We know what’s in store if that happens. In the past, recombined strains of norovirus have led to a fast escape from naturally acquired immunity, leading to brand new pandemics of gastroenteritis. At the same time we’re seeing more evidence for recombination. The more people catch covid-19, the more risk there is of variants, and the more chance there is that these variants will recombine into something that could prove spectacularly nasty. Stop it spreading, stop the recombinations It’s the same as variants – the fewer of us catches the virus, the less chance it has to create new variants, and the less risk there is of the variants combining to create recombinants. Now, more than ever, businesses need to invest in our covid UVC disinfection tech!